Has Saudi Production Peaked?

See this interesting article from the Oil Drum's Stuart Saniford.  A convincing argument for peaked Saudi production is based on three facts.  The first being increased upstream investment by the Saudis.  The second being increased rig counts.  Third and most importantly, declining production despite this.  There is a supply pay off lag that may account for all or some of this.  Supply figures in the next two years or so will confirm this hypothesis.